WOLFRAM SYSTEMMODELER

Pollution_Dynamics

Pollution dynamics

Diagram

Wolfram Language

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SystemModel["SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3.Pollution_Dynamics"]
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Information

This model describes the appearance of persistent pollutants. These pollutants are an unwelcome yet inevitable byproduct of our industrial production. Especially air pollution is problematic, because these pollutants are difficult to re-capture, and they remain in the air for a long time, somewhere in the order of 100 years. These then lead to Global Warming.

Whereas the earlier WORLD2 model listed only the appearance and assimilation of pollution itself, the newer WORLD3 model accounts for the possibility of reducing the release of pollutants into the air by improved technology using a second state variable. For example, it may be possible to burn coal in a power plant that captures the released CO2 rather than releasing it into the atmosphere. In this way, the greenhouse gas emissions could be significantly reduced, and thereby, the effects of global warming could be mitigated.

Pollutants can take many forms. For this reason, the WORLD3 model normalizes the pollutants and expresses them in "units of pollution." In accordance with engineering practice, normalized quantities are assumed to be dimensionless (the dimensions are filtered out in the process of normalization), and consequently, pollution in this model is assumed dimensionless. The technology change factor is also dimensionless.

Public Parameters (17)

agr_mtl_toxic_index

Value: 1

Type: Real (¹/dollar)

Description: Agricultural materials toxicity index

assim_half_life_1970

Value: 1.5

Type: Real (yr)

Description: Pollution assimilation half life in 1970

des_ppoll_index_DPOLX

Value: 1.2

Type: Real

Description: Desired persistent pollution index

fr_agr_inp_pers_mtl

Value: 0.001

Type: Real

Description: Effective fraction of agricultural pollution input

frac_res_pers_mtl

Value: 0.02

Type: Real

Description: Effective fraction of resource utilization on pollution generation

ind_mtl_emiss_fact

Value: 0.1

Type: Real (¹/ton)

Description: Industrial materials emission factor

ind_mtl_toxic_index

Value: 10.0

Type: Real

Description: Industrial materials toxicity index

ind_out_in_1970

Value: 790000000000.0

Type: Real (dollar/yr)

Description: Industrial output in 1970

p_ppoll_gen_fact_1

Value: 1

Type: Real

Description: Default persistent pollution generation factor

pers_pollution_init

Value: 25000000.0

Type: Real

Description: Initial persistent pollution

ppoll_in_1970

Value: 136000000.0

Type: Real

Description: Persistent pollution in 1970

ppoll_tech_init

Value: 1

Type: Real

Description: Initial persistent pollution technology change factor

ppoll_trans_del

Value: 20

Type: Real (yr)

Description: Persistent pollution transmission delay

t_air_poll_time

Value: 4000

Type: Real (yr)

Description: Air pollution change time

t_policy_year

Value: 4000

Type: Real (yr)

Description: Year of policy change

tech_dev_del_TDD

Value: 20

Type: Real (yr)

Description: Technology development time

p_ppoll_tech_chg_mlt

Value: {0, 0, 0, 0}

Type: Real[:]

Description: Persistent pollution technology change multiplier

Connectors (10)

population

Type: MassInPort

Description: Population

pc_res_use_mlt

Type: MassInPort

Description: Per capita resource utilization

arable_land

Type: MassInPort

Description: Arable land

agr_inp_per_hect

Type: MassInPort

Description: Agricultural investments per hectare

ppoll_tech_mult_icor_COPM

Type: MassOutPort

Description: Technology induced reduction in persistent pollution release

ppoll_index

Type: MassOutPort

Description: Persistent pollution index

ppoll_gen_rt

Type: MassOutPort

Description: Persistent pollution generation rate

industrial_output

Type: MassInPort

Description: Annual industrial output

poll_intens_ind

Type: MassOutPort

Description: Persistent pollution intensity index

s_yield_mlt_air_poll

Type: MassOutPort

Description: Land yield multiplier to air pollution release

Components (27)

Pers_Pollution

Type: Level

Description: p.440 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Appear_Rt

Type: RRate

Description: p.435 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Assim_Rt

Type: RRate

Description: p.442 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

Source1

Type: Source

Sink1

Type: Sink

PPoll_Appear_Rate

Type: SMTH3

Description: p.435 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Ass_Rt

Type: PPoll_Assim_Rt

Description: p.442 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

Assim_Half_Life_Mlt

Type: Tabular

Description: p.453 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Index

Type: Gain

Description: p.441 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Gen_Rt

Type: PPoll_Gen_Rt

Description: p.428 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Gen_Agr

Type: PPoll_Gen_Agr

Description: p.433 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Gen_Ind

Type: PPoll_Gen_Ind

Description: p.429 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Tech_PTD

Type: Level1a

PPoll_Tech_Chg_Rt

Type: Rate_1

Source2

Type: Source

PPoll_Tech_Ch_Rt

Type: PPoll_Tech_Chg_Rt

P_PPoll_Tech_Chg_mlt_POLGFM

Type: Tabular

P_PPoll_Tech_Chg

Type: P_PPoll_Tech_Chg

P_PPoll_Gen_Fact_2

Type: SMTH3

S_PPoll_Gen_Fact

Type: S_PPoll_Gen_Fact

Description: p.428 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PPoll_Tech_Mult_Icor_COPM

Type: Tabular

Poll_Intens_Ind

Type: Poll_Intens_Ind

Gain1

Type: Gain

P_Yield_Mlt_Air_Poll_1

Type: Tabular

Description: p.310 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

P_Yield_Mlt_Air_Poll_2

Type: Tabular

Description: p.310 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

S_Yield_Mlt_Air_Poll

Type: S_Yield_Mlt_Air_Poll

Description: p.310 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

Assim_Half_Life

Type: Gain

Description: p.453 of Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

Used in Examples (11)

Scenario_11

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

Influencing the future 10 years later

Scenario_10

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

Influencing the future 20 years earlier

Scenario_9

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

Combining the measures of Scenarios #6 and #8

Scenario_8

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More abundant non-recoverable natural resources, birth control, and stable industrial output

Scenario_7

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More abundant non-recoverable natural resources and birth control

Scenario_6

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More accessible non-recoverable natural resources, pollution control, land yield enhancement, erosion protection, and resource efficiency

Scenario_5

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More accessible non-recoverable natural resources, pollution control, land yield enhancement, and erosion protection

Scenario_4

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More accessible non-recoverable natural resources, pollution control, and land yield enhancement

Scenario_3

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More accessible non-recoverable natural resources and pollution control

Scenario_2

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

More abundant non-recoverable natural resources

Scenario_1

SystemDynamics.WorldDynamics.World3

Original WORLD3 model